Trump Endorsement Could Hurt Republicans in Local Elections in Swing Districts: Poll
A new poll has found that while President Donald Trump remains the most powerful figure in Republican politics, GOP candidates running in competitive House districts this fall could see their election chances hurt as a result of his endorsement.
POLITICO reported that the survey, conducted by Public First from April 11 to 14 among 2,035 U.S. adults, tested how voters reacted when House candidates were described as being backed by Trump or by groups tied to major political issues, including abortion, Medicare for All, artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, business taxes, gun restrictions, and Israel policy.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. Trump’s endorsement made voters who supported him in 2024 an average of 22% more likely to support a candidate, compared with other endorsements or group backing.
Less surprisingly, among voters who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, Trump’s endorsement made them 55% less likely to support that candidate. That larger backlash among Harris voters outweighed the boost from Trump supporters, making Trump’s backing a net negative across all voters in the experiment.
Trump has continued endorsing candidates across the country. His influence was visible again in Louisiana, where Sen. Bill Cassidy lost his Republican primary after Trump endorsed one of his opponents, Rep. Julia Letlow. Trump has also backed Ed Gallrein over prominent Republican Trump critic Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, putting his endorsement power to another test.
The findings align with previous research on Trump’s influence during his second term. A 2023 study on Trump’s endorsements from 2018 to 2022 found that his backing produced limited benefit for candidates in general elections, even as it remained highly relevant inside Republican politics.
Andy Ballard, a Florida State University professor whose research has examined Trump endorsements in swing seats, told POLITICO that endorsements can harm candidates when the endorser is unpopular with the broader electorate. “If whoever is sending the endorsement is less popular, then there are more people for whom an endorsement will mean that they update negatively on that candidate,” Ballard said, according to Politico.
The POLITICO Poll also found voter skepticism toward several powerful outside groups. Groups advocating for less regulation of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence performed poorly with both Democrats and Republicans, suggesting that candidates may face risks if they are publicly tied to those industries.
Another Politico Pro report from earlier this month also found voter unease over AI and crypto-linked political spending ahead of the midterms. Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, said crypto stood out because it was “toxic to both Democrats and Republicans,” while issues such as abortion restrictions were intensely divisive but more predictably partisan.
Other groups performed better as candidates backed by Medicare for All supporters saw gains among Harris voters and slight gains among Trump voters. Groups advocating stronger AI regulation also received positive responses across party lines, while support for lower business taxes resonated with Trump voters and was roughly neutral among Harris voters.
